An AI re-invented Fantasy Scout (sort of…)

by milivella

[On April 7, 2004, I had the following conversation with the large language model Claude 3 Opus. Bold text is me, normal text is Claude.]

Hi. I am looking for an objective measurement of soccer skills. E.g. I could use number of World Cup won, and that would have Pele in first place (good!). But then not so great players like Bellini and Castilho would be tied second, and players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Di Stefano and Cruijff would be at 0 tied with… well, with any other human being on the planet (not good!). Do you have any suggestion?

Measuring soccer skills objectively is challenging, as there are many factors to consider and different positions require different skill sets. However, here are a few metrics that could help provide a more comprehensive assessment of a player’s abilities:

1. Individual awards: Consider the number of individual awards won, such as the Ballon d’Or, FIFA Best Player, or position-specific awards like the Golden Boot or Golden Glove.
2. Appearances and longevity: Look at the number of appearances for club and country, as well as the duration of a player’s career at the top level.
3. Goals and assists: While this favors attacking players, goals and assists are crucial to a team’s success and can be a good indicator of a player’s contribution.
4. Passing accuracy and key passes: For midfielders and playmakers, passing accuracy and key passes (passes that lead to a goal-scoring opportunity) can be valuable metrics.
5. Defensive stats: For defenders and defensive midfielders, consider tackles, interceptions, clearances, and blocks.
6. Team honors: While not solely dependent on an individual, the number of team honors (league titles, domestic cups, and international club competitions) can indicate a player’s impact on their team’s success.
7. International success: Performances and achievements in major international tournaments, such as the World Cup or continental championships, can showcase a player’s ability to perform on the biggest stages.

By combining several of these metrics, you can create a more balanced assessment of a player’s overall skill level and impact on the game. However, it’s important to note that soccer is a team sport, and individual metrics don’t always capture the full picture of a player’s contribution to their team’s success.

The idea of combining metrics is good, but for the time being, I would like to stick to the idea of the single metric. Let me give you some quick feedback about the metrics you suggested, if you do not mind. 1: no, Pele and Maradona won no Ballon d’Or or FIFA Best Player. 4 and 5: no, because these kinds of stats were not recorded in the past. 6: no, because some good players have never won any trophy (e.g. Kane, so far). This leaves (2) apperarances and (3) goals (not assists, as they were not recorded in the past), especially (7) in major international tournaments.

Thank you for your feedback. Given the constraints you mentioned, focusing on a player’s goal-scoring record in major international tournaments could be a good single metric to assess their impact and skill level. This metric has several advantages:

• Consistency across eras: Major international tournaments have been played for many decades, allowing for comparisons between players from different eras.
• High-pressure performances: International tournaments are high-stakes events where players face the best opponents from around the world, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure.
• Equal opportunity: Unlike domestic leagues, where players may face different levels of opposition depending on their team and league, international tournaments provide a more level playing field for all participants.
• Legacy-defining moments: Standout performances in international tournaments can define a player’s legacy and are often remembered for generations.

To implement this metric, you could consider the following:

• Goals scored in the World Cup, Continental Championships (e.g., Euros, Copa America), and the Olympics (for the years it was considered a major tournament).
• Weigh goals based on the stage of the tournament (e.g., group stage, knockout rounds, final).
• Account for the total number of tournaments played to avoid penalizing players with shorter international careers.

While this single metric doesn’t capture every aspect of a player’s skill level, it does provide a good basis for comparing the impact of players across different eras in high-pressure, high-stakes situations.

I like your suggestion very much! The most basic version of your suggestion would probably be “most goals scored at World Cups”. The ranking would be: 1. Klose, 2. Ronaldo, 3. Gerd Muller, 4. Fontaine and Messi, 6. Pele and Mbappe, 8. Kocsis and Klinsmann.

You’re right! Using the “most goals scored at World Cups” metric provides a simple and straightforward way to compare players across different eras. This ranking includes some of the most legendary names in soccer history and spans several decades.

However, there are a few potential limitations to keep in mind:

• Position bias: This metric heavily favors forwards and attacking players, as they are more likely to score goals. Defensive players and midfielders who make significant contributions may not rank as highly.
• Era differences: The style of play, tactics, and rules have evolved, which could impact goal-scoring opportunities. For example, the offside rule has undergone changes over time.
• Tournament format: The number of teams and matches in the World Cup has increased over time, potentially giving more recent players additional opportunities to score.

Despite these limitations, using World Cup goals as a single metric provides a good starting point for comparing players’ impact and performance on the biggest stage. It’s a testament to the enduring legacy of players like Miroslav Klose, Ronaldo, and Gerd Müller that their goal-scoring feats have stood the test of time.

If you wanted to refine the metric further, you could consider:

• Goals per match: This would account for differences in the number of matches played by each player.
• Weighting goals by stage: Goals scored in the knockout rounds or the final could be given more weight than those scored in the group stage.
• Combining with other international tournaments: You could include goals scored in other major tournaments, such as the Continental Championships, to get a more comprehensive picture of a player’s international career.

Great ideas. I would prefer “caps at the World Cup”, though. The ranking would be: 1. Messi; 2. Matthaeus; 3. Klose; 4. Maldini; 5. Ronaldo; 6. Maradona, Seeler and Zmuda. What do you think?

Using “caps at the World Cup” as a metric is an interesting approach, as it takes into account a player’s longevity and consistency in being selected for their national team at the highest level. This ranking includes a mix of attacking players, midfielders, and defenders, providing a more balanced representation of different positions.

Advantages of using “caps at the World Cup” as a metric:

• Longevity: Players with more caps have demonstrated their ability to maintain a high level of performance over multiple tournaments and years.
• Consistency: Being selected for multiple World Cups shows that a player has consistently been among the best in their country and has earned the trust of different managers.
• Position diversity: This metric allows for the recognition of outstanding players across different positions, not just goal scorers.

Limitations to consider:

1. Squad depth: Some countries have more depth in certain positions, which could make it harder for players to earn caps consistently.
2. Injuries and external factors: Players may miss World Cups due to injuries or other external factors, which could affect their total caps.
3. Different eras: The number of matches played in each World Cup has varied over time, potentially giving more recent players an advantage in accumulating caps.

Despite these limitations, using “caps at the World Cup” provides a unique perspective on a player’s impact and longevity at the highest level of international soccer. It’s a testament to the skill, consistency, and leadership of players like Lionel Messi, Lothar Matthäus, and Paolo Maldini that they have been able to earn so many caps across multiple World Cups.

To further refine this metric, you could consider:

• Weighting caps by stage: Caps earned in the knockout rounds or the final could be given more weight than those earned in the group stage.
• Combining with other metrics: You could create a composite metric that takes into account caps, goals, and other relevant statistics to provide a more comprehensive assessment of a player’s World Cup performance.

About your limitations… 1: OK, but the countries with more depth are usually the ones that go further in the tournament, i.e., play more matches. So this would compensate the difficulty of earning caps. I mean, it is “easier to start for a country that plays less matches” vs. “harder to start for a country that plays more matches”. 2: agreed, World Cup is played too rarely. 3: agreed. How would you solve these problems?

You make a great point about squad depth and the correlation with a team’s success in the tournament. The countries with more depth tend to progress further, which means their players have more opportunities to earn caps. This can help balance out the difficulty of earning a starting spot in a more competitive team.

To address the limitations of using “caps at the World Cup” as a metric, here are a few potential solutions:

• Normalize caps by tournament size: To account for the varying number of matches played in different World Cup editions, you could normalize the caps earned by each player based on the total number of matches their team played in that tournament. For example, if a player earned 5 caps in a tournament where their team played 7 matches, their normalized caps for that tournament would be 5/7 = 0.71.
• Include caps from other major international tournaments: To mitigate the impact of injuries or other external factors that may cause a player to miss a World Cup, you could expand the metric to include caps earned in other major tournaments, such as the Continental Championships (e.g., Euros, Copa America) and the Confederations Cup (when it was active).
• Era adjustment: To account for the differences in the number of matches played in each World Cup over time, you could apply an era adjustment factor. This factor could be based on the average number of matches played per team in each tournament, with the most recent era serving as the baseline. For example, if the average number of matches per team in the current era is 7, and a player earned 6 caps in an era where the average was 5, their era-adjusted caps for that tournament would be 6 * (7/5) = 8.4.

By applying these adjustments, you can create a more balanced and comprehensive metric that accounts for the limitations of using raw “caps at the World Cup” numbers. The adjusted metric would look something like:

Adjusted World Cup Caps = Sum(Normalized Caps * Era Adjustment Factor) + Sum(Normalized Caps from Other Major Tournaments)

This refined metric would provide a more nuanced assessment of a player’s longevity, consistency, and impact across multiple major international tournaments, while accounting for differences in tournament size and format over time.

Keep in mind that no single metric can perfectly capture every aspect of a player’s skill and impact, but by refining the “caps at the World Cup” metric as described above, you can create a more robust and meaningful measure of a player’s international career.

Thanks.

You’re welcome! I hope these suggestions help you refine your metric for assessing soccer players’ international careers. Remember, while it’s useful to have a standardized way to compare players, it’s also important to consider the context and nuances of each player’s individual journey.

Soccer is a complex sport, and there are many factors that contribute to a player’s success and legacy, both on and off the field. The beauty of the game lies not just in the numbers, but also in the unique skills, personalities, and moments that each player brings to the sport.

As you continue to explore ways to measure and compare soccer greatness, keep an open mind and be willing to adapt your approach as new insights and perspectives emerge. The conversation around the greatest players of all time is an ongoing one, and there’s always room for fresh ideas and healthy debate.

If you have any more questions or would like to discuss this topic further, feel free to ask. I’m here to help!