Fantasy Scout Blog

Month: November, 2015

Nominees for the FIFPro 2015 World XI

Here are the Fantasy Scout players in the shortlist for the 2015 FIFPro World XI (previously I posted about last year’s nominees and all years’ winners).

Goalkeepers:

  • De Gea (Riccardo 2007-10)
  • Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)

Defenders:

  • Alba (Michael H. 2010-12)
  • Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)
  • Carvajal (Andrea V. 2012-14)
  • David Luiz (Andrea V. 2007-10)
  • Hummels (Mark 2007-10)
  • Marcelo (Andrea V. 2007-10)
  • Pique (Benny 2007-10)
  • Varane (Andrea V. 2010-12)

The same as same year, with the only exception that Filipe has been dropped!

Midfielders:

  • Thiago Alcantara (Daniel B. 2007-10)
  • Busquets (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
  • Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)
  • Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)
  • Verratti (Gianmarco 2007-10)

Forwards:

  • Douglas Costa (Andrea V. 2007-10)
  • Mueller (Daniele 2007-10)
  • Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)

From 18 last year to… 18 this year.

2015 Goal 50

Here are the FS players in Goal.com’s ranking of the best 50 players of the year (previously: the July 2014 list):

  • 50. Depay (Tom Two 2010-12)
  • 49. Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)
  • 48. Coutinho (Andrea B. 2007-10)
  • 43. Pastore (Abubakr 2007-10)
  • 39. Otamendi (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
  • 38. Icardi (Daniele 2012-14)
  • 36. Bonucci (Pietro 2007-10)
  • 35. Diego Costa (Michael H. 2012-14) *
  • 33. Kane (Daniele 2014-16)
  • 31. Pique (Benny 2007-10)
  • 28. Morata (Binder 2012-14)
  • 27. Verratti (Gianmarco 2007-10)
  • 20. Griezmann (Sid Debgupta 2010-12)
  • 19. De Gea (Riccardo 2007-10)
  • 15. Neuer (Matthias 2007-10) *
  • 9. Pogba (Daniele 2012-14) *
  • 6. Mueller (Daniele 2007-10) *
  • 4. Neymar (Jesus 2007-10) *

* = in 2014 ranking

(Depay and Pastore in but no Douglas Costa? Icardi at 38th but no Dybala? Are you kidding me?!)

From 13 players in the ranking to 18. From 1 player in the top ten to 3.

Players that were in the 2014 ranking but are not in the 2015 one:

  • Immobile (Giovanni 2007-10)
  • Blind (Pietro 2010-12)
  • Perez (Nigel 2007-10)
  • Matuidi (Generoso 2007-10)
  • Hummels (Mark 2007-10)
  • Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)
  • Reus (Pietro 2010-12)
  • Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)
Picking cycle Players in 2014 ranking Players in 2015 ranking
2007-10 9 11
2010-12 2 2
2012-14 2 4
2014-16 0 1

2010-12 confirmed as the mediocre cycle.

Scout with most players in the list: Daniele with 4. Last year, he was the leader too, but with just 2 players, and tied with Generoso, Matthias and Pietro. He’s also the only scout to have two players from the same cycle in the list: he picked both Pogba and Icardi in the 3rd picking cycle.

From veto to majority

[Again, I posted this idea on rec.sport.soccer.]

TL;DR: I think we can move from the veto system to majority. What do you think about it?


The current rule about changing rules (yo dawg…) is:

c. Modifying the rules

[1] Only rules for the next picking cycle can be modified.

[2] Rules can be modified just sending a proposal to fantasyscout@yahoogroups.com .

[3] If none of the scouts that are playing since at least 6 months disagrees in a week, the proposal is accepted, and becomes rule.

( http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rules.htm )

The part I’d like to change is #3 (I’ll call it “the veto system”, since one vote against = proposal rejected). I’d like to have something like this instead:

“[3] If more than 50% [or 67%?] of the scouts who votes in a week agree, the proposal is accepted, and becomes rule.” (Also: “Only scouts who are playing since at least 6 months can vote.”)

I.e. I’d like to switch to a majority system. Here is my reasoning.

There was a reason for the veto system at the start of the game. Do you remember? There were no cycles! So any change to the ruleset applied to a game you had already spent time (energy, passion) on. It was like starting a game of chess and changing the rules during the middle game! In such a situation, the only fair way was having everybody agreeing about any change: otherwise, you would have someone having spent time on a game they suddenly didn’t like anymore (or didn’t have the chance to win anymore!).

But now we have cycles, so the original reason for veto doesn’t stand anymore. It’s reasonable that someone likes the rules of cycle #4 and plays it, doesn’t like the rules of cycle #5 and doesn’t play it, etc. Of course it would still be nice to have every current scout like next cycle rules and be willing to keep playing, but maybe now the negative sides of the veto system weigh more than this benefit…

Negative sides of the veto system:

  1. Imagine a reform that makes the game way better for five very active scouts and barely worse for one not-so-active scout. With the veto system, this reform would be rejected. I argue that the “right thing” is for this reform to be accepted.
  2. Psychology: who wants to be the guy who shoots a fellow scout’s (or even a friend’s) proposal down?
  3. Psychology: who wants to spend time and energy designing and discussing a reform, when just one vote against means that it’s rejected?
  4. Sometimes you don’t like a reform, but you would be OK with it if everybody else agreed with it (see the thread about the player trading proposal). Of course this can be solved through discussion, but it wouldn’t be bad to have a way to express this slight dislike of the proposal in an official way.

(I can’t be sure about #1, but all the other reasons are absolutely real – at least for me)

Having the proposals accepted or rejected by majority would solve all these issues. What do you think about it?


End note: why don’t I consider something like a “king” (i.e. ruler for life) or a “president” (i.e. ruler for a cycle)? The former option has been proposed in the past. But I wouldn’t like to decide for everybody else, and I wouldn’t like to have someone else to decide for me. Also (minor reason), the “nature” of Fantasy Scout includes democracy – it’s one of the four basic attributes of the game:

Fantasy Scout is a [1] simple [2] free game where [3] you win by picking good football (soccer) players before they become famous. [4] Anybody can contribute to make the game better by proposing changes to the ruleset.

( http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/ )

My opinion about Daniele’s player trading reform proposal

You can find Daniele’s proposal in a post on the rec.sport.soccer newsgroup. I posted my remarks in the same thread, but here is a copy.

I know that it is customary to have proper debate before making an official proposal, but in this case: a) We already had this rule in place during the first cycle

The second, too.

b) it’s fairly harmless, because in practice it is very rarely used — scouts like to hang on to their players.

Yeah, in five years and a half it was used only once, and only because of a bet. I’m not saying that nobody will ever trade players or that we should not have rules that aren’t applied often, but I think twice before adding to the rulesets a point that probably won’t be used.

So why have it? Because there are cases in which scouts like to have friendly FS-related bets…

I can see one or more reasons to have player trading (see below)… but I’m not sure this kind of bets is one of them. I mean, such bets show that our FS players (or points, or ranks) are worth to us, but why shold we show it with bets? Because they make FS more exciting? I’d rather look for other ways to make the game more exciting…

Now, let me add some more remarks – random and even contradictory remarks (the proposal made me think, and I haven’t sorted my thoughts yet):

  • Good reason for having player trading: it can mean more activity – things are a bit slow lately, and I’d like to have more active scouts (Abubakr, MH, Binder, where are you?!).
  • Why was player trading in the original ruleset? …I confess I don’t remember! I mean, I guess it seemed important to me, otherwise I would have pruned it: surely I wanted the ruleset to be minimal. I guess I thought trading players would be a way to keep estimating the future career of a player even after he had been picked. I.e. something like “the game is about estimating future careers, and trading allows for more estimating”. Does this reason still apply? I don’t know: FS has become something about picking, not about picking-and-trading (I mean: this happened before trading was removed from the ruleset); but of course if FS has changed its nature once, it can do it again.
  • Why was player trading removed from the ruleset? If you don’t remember how it happened, there could be a mini-twist here: the rule, introduced by me in the original ruleset, was removed because of a proposal by… me! Here is what I wrote:

    “The reasons are maybe obvious:

    – Nobody exchanges players anyway, so we’ll have a lighter ruleset while not changing anything.

    – The trading rule could be used to cheat: one could sign up under two different names and then transfer all the good player from name #2 to name #1 in exchange for all name #1’s failed picks (I know that nobody would do it, but why to maintain this temptation?).

    – Daniele will sooner or later exploit it again to fool me! (kidding…)”

    Only Daniele commented about it: he wrote that maybe trading players would be fun – we couldn’t knew because we never really tried. Do the reasons I adduced still apply? I guess so.

  • If, after all these words, you still haven’t a clear idea of my opinion about this reform, the reason is that… neither have I! This brings me to my final (for the time being…) point: let’s say that I don’t love the rule, so I’d like to express this opinion by voting. Right now I have three options:
    • voting for: not what I want to do
    • voting against: under the current rules, this means rejecting the proposal. But I don’t dislike the rule so much that I feel fine being possibly the only cause of not having it!
    • abstaining: it’s practically the same as voting for

    I would prefer being able to vote against without this meaning that the proposal is rejected. I.e. I’d like to say “I think the game is better without trading players, but if most of you like it, let’s do it”. But this means I’d like to change the reform voting system, so follow me to the next thread…

Stealing beauty

Nice question from Alberto: if I could steal a player from the squad of a given scout in a given cycle and take all the points he will score from now on (i.e. points scored so far don’t count), which players would I steal?

Let’s start with Alberto himself:

  1. 2007-10: Banega
  2. 2010-12: Insigne (of course)
  3. 2012-14: Bernardeschi (hard to choose between him and Rabiot)
  4. 2014-16: Loftus-Creek (I answered El Ghazi at first and there are other good candidates, but RLC looks solid to me)

Then of course there’s Daniele:

  1. 2007-10: Mueller (either him or Hart – and Mueller scores goals…)
  2. 2010-12: Lacazette (but could be Casemiro or Jese)
  3. 2012-14: Pogba…
  4. 2014-16: Donnarumma (I like Fekir, and Kane will unfortunately score a lot of points, but Donnarumma looks like predestined)

Two more: Abubakr and Michael H. Abubakr:

  1. 2007-10: Pastore
  2. 2010-12: Rojo (or Lamela?!)
  3. 2012-14: Correa (hard! anyway, now I see that Abubakr has a knack of picking good Argentinian players)
  4. 2014-16: Alena (just picked!)

Finally, Michael H.:

  1. 2007-10: Lloris (Oezil is not old, but goalkeepers last longer)
  2. 2010-12: Alba (very hard to choose among him, Giroud and Barkley!)
  3. 2012-14: Shaw
  4. 2014-16: Stendera?

The Best

Now I know how having picked the best player in the world right now feels. It feels good.

(I’m talking about Douglas Costa, of course.)

Catalonia

Catalan lawmakers voted in favour of secession from Spain. What should we do if this (admittedly improbable) secession happens? (I’m assuming the Spain-minus-Catalonia national team will be officially considered the heir of – indeed the same as – the current Spain national team)

  • Cycles that have already started: I guess the rules of Fantasy Scout don’t allow us to change anything. Scouts who picked Catalonian players would feel unlucky, though.
  • Next cycle: we’ll have to decide among three hypotheses: to have both Spain and Catalonia, just Spain, or neither in our pool of national teams.

Golden Boy 2015 shortlist

Many of the players shortlisted for the 2015 Golden Boy (I previously posted about the 2008-14 winners) award have been picked in Fantasy Scout:

  • Ake (Nigel 2012-14)
  • Alli (Daniele 2014-16)
  • Asensio (Alberto 2014-16)
  • Bellerin (Jackson 2014-16)
  • Coman (Nigel 2012-14)
  • Correa (Abubakr 2014-16)
  • Danilo Barbosa (Nigel 2012-14)
  • El Ghazi (Alberto 2014-16)
  • Munir (Giovanni T. 2014-16)
  • Ibe (Gianmarco 2014-16)
  • Kishna (Alberto 2014-16)
  • Loftus-Cheek (Alberto 2014-16)
  • Martial (Nigel 2012-14)
  • Meyer (Jackson 2012-14)
  • Rabiot (Alberto 2012-14)
  • Romagnoli (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
  • Sandro (Alberto 2014-16)
  • Shaw (Michael H. 2012-14)
  • Vilhena (Gianmarco 2012-14)

Alberto won this one!

And the average Fantasy Scout player is…

Who is the player who is closest to the Platonic idea of a Fantasy Scout player?

To answer this question, I checked how distant (Euclidean distance) each player is from the data the ideal average player in the previous link (I omitted the data between parentheses, normalized all the numeric data, and considered 0 or 1 the difference for non-numeric data).

And the winner is… Daniele Galloppa!

Let’s compare him with the ideal average player:

name Ideal Galloppa
was born on 1990-04-25 1985-05-15
was picked by Andrea V. Andrea V.
was picked on 2011-05-24 2010-03-15
plays for Italy Italy
plays as midfielder midfielder
caps so far 7 2
international goals so far 1 0
predicted final score 20 0
caps in the last 365 days 1 0
international goals in the last 365 days 0 0
current value on Transfermarkt 11,400,000 7,000,000

Note: Galloppa got his 2 caps before I picked him.

The ten players that are closest to the average are:

Player Distance
Galloppa 0.333218731
Cristante 0.370242273
Nocerino 0.464736570
Benassi 0.535669171
Montolivo 0.857186788
Romeu 1.014154475
Cuenca 1.015923136
Clasie 1.016963509
Poli 1.023588969
Bonaventura 1.023615837

They are all midfielders. I picked the top eight. Seven of them are Italian. …Maybe I made the non-numeric fields are too important. What if I remove them?

Here is the new top 10:

Player Distance, numeric data only
De Jong L. 0.072304991
Musacchio 0.089959368
Walker 0.129917966
Gonalons 0.136943835
Bender S. 0.144727473
Yanga-Mbiwa 0.145125233
Krul 0.147978303
Cleverley 0.149179679
Grosskreutz 0.153177900
Wollscheid 0.155567872

So let’s compare Luuk De Jong and the ideal average player:

name Ideal Luuk de Jong
was born on 1990-04-25 1990-08-27
was picked on 2011-05-24 2011-06-04
caps so far 7 9
international goals so far 1 1
predicted final score 20 25
caps in the last 365 days 1 2
international goals in the last 365 days 0 0
current value on Transfermarkt 11,400,000 13,000,000

Quite similar, indeed.

The average Fantasy Scout player

The average Fantasy Scout player:

  • was born on 25 April 1990
  • …(i.e. is 25 year and a half old)
  • was picked by Andrea V.
  • …on 24 May 2011 (so born on 04-25, picked on 05-24)…
  • …(i.e. he was picked when he was almost 21)
  • plays for Italy
  • …as midfielder
  • has got 7 caps…
  • …and 1 international goals…
  • …(i.e. 8 points!) so far
  • is predicted to end his career with 20 points…
  • …even though* only 1 of these caps is from the last 365 days
  • is currently valued 11.4 million Euro on Transfermarkt

(average = mean for numeric data including dates, mode for other kinds of data)

* These data are not consistent, because if you plug them in the prediction formula, the result is 12 points at the end of the career (not 20!).