Mates 2

Some days ago everybody in Italy was struck by a mystery: what were Napoli’s Higuain (Andrea V. 2007-10) and Juventus’ Dybala (Andrea V. 2014-16) doing together in Milan?

Should I tell them? 🙂

(previously, also)

Stop the presses!

Right now among the top 25 posts in r/soccer in the last 24 hours (unfortunately I can only give you a link to the top posts of the 24 hours before you click – I can’t freeze time 😦 ):

• “Higuaín’s [Andrea V. 2007-10] perfect touch and turn”
• “Paulo Dybala [Andrea V. 2014-16] amazing first touch vs Roma”
• “Douglas Costa’s [Andrea V. 2007-10] control in Bayern training.”

Style: we don’t lack it.

Goal 50 best wonderkids

Goal.com published a ranking of “the best 50 under-18 players in the world”. Some known faces in the mix:

• 41. Solanke (Alberto 2014-16)
• 25. Mastour (Saintjust 2012-14)
• 20. Augustin (Saintjust 2014-16)
• 16. Roberts (Jackson 2014-16)
• 9. Malcom (Andrea V. 2014-16)
• 6. Gerson (Abubakr 2014-16)
• 3. Donnarumma (Daniele 2014-16)

RSS World Class XI 2016

Time to update the table about FS players in the RSS World Class XI now that the 2016 team is out:

Player	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)	GK	GK		GK	GK	GK
Busquets (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)	DM	DM	DM
Oezil (Michael H. 2007-10)	LAM (tied with 3)
Pique (Benny 2007-10)		CD	CD	CD (tied with 2)		CD
Hart (Daniele 2007-10)			GK
Alba (Michael H. 2010-12)			LD
Goetze (Andrea V. 2010-12)			RAM
Marquinhos (Daniele 2012-14)				CD (tied with 2)	CD (tied with 3)
Thomas Mueller (Daniele 2007-10)				RAM (tied with 2)	LAM (tied with 3)
Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)					CD	CD
Varane (Andrea V. 2010-12)					CD (tied with 3)
Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)					CM
Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)					RAM (tied with 1)
Neymar (Jesis 2007-10)						FW

Foresight is 20/20

So this weekend:

• Higuain scored two goals (including the deciding one). He now has 20 goals in 20 league matches.
• Dybala scored two goals (including the deciding one) and assisted two more. He now has 6 goals and 3 assists in his last 10 league matches.
• Negredo scored a quite wonderful goal.
• Ansaldi assisted 3 goals.
• Butland kept a clean sheet against the league leaders, Arsenal, thanks to a couple of great saves (tied man of the match on Goal.com).
• Sergi Roberto had a good performance once again… this time as left back, “the 7th position he played at this season”

By no means a bad weekend.

End of 2015 predictions

[Hi, Andrea V. here. OK, so far nothing new… What is new is that I’m here just to introduce a very interesting guest post by Daniele, whom I warmly thank. So here is what Daniele has to say to us all:]

It’s that time of the year again, when we update the Fantasy Scout prediction formula. This year, thanks to some excellent data collection effort by Andrea, we’ve implemented some fairly substantial changes. But, for the first time, I actually feel somewhat confident that what the formula is predicting is not completely bogus.

If you have never read about the prediction formula before, the logic is quite simple: use all available information up to today to predict a player’s future caps and goals. This year we’ve been able to make the formula a whole lot richer, by incorporating information on players’ transfermarket values, as well as their career goal-per-game average. In a nutshell, the formula is made up three parts:

1. Predict next year’s caps based on this year’s caps, a player’s age, market values and position on the field.
2. Predict next year’s NT goals based on the number of caps and a player’s career scoring average.
3. Predict a player’s value at the end of next year based on age, position, and accumulated caps

Repeat this for 25 years, or until a player turns 35 to create a simulated player career. Then, repeat this process 5000 times to create 5000 player careers. The mean number of FS points is the player’s mean Predicted Score.

We may be interested in the top players by cycle:

The top 10 players of Cycle 1 (2007-2010)

+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |               player          scout   cycle INITIA~E mean_P~E   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |               Neymar          Jesus    2010 111      172.69     |
  2. |               Muller        Daniele    2010  99      128.027    |
  3. |             Di Maria       Generoso    2010  84      113.479    |
  4. |                 Ozil     Michael H.    2010  88      108.475    |
  5. |             Busquets   Sid Debgupta    2010  83      102.231    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |              Higuain      Andrea V.    2010  79      101.347    |
  7. |              Cazorla        Daniele    2010  91       98.8258   |
  8. |                Kroos       Matthias    2010  71       93.2168   |
  9. |                Pique          Benny    2010  76       90.9162   |
 10. |               Lloris     Michael H.    2010  72       83.488    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|

The top 10 players of Cycle 2 (2010-2012)

+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
      |             player          scout   cycle INITIA~E mean_P~E |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------|
 359. |              Gotze      Andrea V.    2012 64       103.544  |
 360. |           Schurrle       Riccardo    2012 69        93.8794 |
 361. |             Giroud     Michael H.    2012 58        76.56   |
 362. |          Griezmann   Sid Debgupta    2012 30        73.7224 |
 363. |              Depay        Tom two    2012 24        72.347  |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------|
 364. |         David Luiz      Andrea V.    2012 57        71.7018 |
 365. |               Rojo        Abubakr    2012 42        70.4936 |
 366. |             Varane      Andrea V.    2012 29        69.8718 |
 367. |           Sterling        William    2012 22        69.6664 |
 368. |            Alba J.     Michael H.    2012 45        63.6628 |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------|

The top 10 players of Cycle 3 (2012-2014)

+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
      |                  player          scout cycle INITIA~E mean_P~E |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
 466. |                   Pogba        Daniele  2014 32       70.2798  |
 467. |                 Alcacer   Sid Debgupta  2014 17       56.9536  |
 468. |         Roberto Firmino      Andrea V.  2014 15       52.2862  |
 469. |                 Martial          Nigel  2014  6       49.9394  |
 470. |                    Koke      Andrea V.  2014 20       49.598   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
 471. |         Marquinhos Aoas        Daniele  2014  9       42.328   |
 472. |                 Darmian        Daniele  2014 20       41.2684  |
 473. |                Florenzi        Daniele  2014 15       40.5112  |
 474. |            Schneiderlin        Abubakr  2014 14       36.3058  |
 475. |                 Lallana         Binder  2014 19       35.8132  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|

The top 10 players of Cycle 4 (2014-16)

+------------------------------------------------------------------+
      |            player          scout   cycle INITIA~E mean_P~E |
|------------------------------------------------------------------|
 629. |              Kane        Daniele    2016 11       58.3354  |
 630. |             Fekir        Daniele    2016  6       40.405   |
 631. |           Alli D.        Daniele    2016  5       35.4426  |
 632. |            Dybala      Andrea V.    2016  3       34.8592  |
 633. |         Bellarabi         Binder    2016 11       34.5028  |
|------------------------------------------------------------------|
 634. |             Clyne        Daniele    2016  9       33.7748  |
 635. |           Pereyra        Daniele    2016 10       33.684   |
 636. |              Zaza      Saintjust    2016  8       30.6138  |
 637. |         Riedewald      Saintjust    2016  3       29.2336  |
 638. |              Sane      Saintjust    2016  1       28.8196  |
|------------------------------------------------------------------|

No real surprises in any of those lists. Now to the interesting part: Which scout is going to win each one of the cycles?

Cycle 1

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |        scout mean_Score median    p10       p90       Win Prob. Top3 Prob Mean Rank |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |      Vasilij 28.7786    21         7        65         .3736     .4208    11.174    |
  2. |      Daniele 28.12944   27.9375   25.75     30.75      .1788     .7232     2.8152   |
  3. | Sid Debgupta 26.428     26.28572  22.71428  30.42857   .1008     .4216     4.2976   |
  4. |    Sid at n. 26.16676   25.2      22.6      31.4       .0964     .3308     4.8036   |
  5. |   Michael H. 25.79505   25.68182  24.09091  27.59091   .0244     .2698     4.5242   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |         Mark 24.7232    24.3      20.7      29.3       .0494     .2428     5.7622   |
  7. |        Jesus 23.50182   23.3      18.1      29         .0478     .2072     6.6976   |
  8. |    Andrea V. 23.05939   23        21.16     25.04      .0006     .0202     7.1932   |
  9. |      Alberto 22.92593   22.66667  19.66667  26.33333   .0114     .0812     7.1864   |
 10. |      Tom two 21.6263    17.5      17.5      31.5       .0786     .1764     8.5892   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. |      Tom one 18.2943    18.08333  16.58333  20.16667  0         0         10.786    |
 12. |      Abubakr 16.04736   15.6      11.8      21         .0002     .0034    13.0644   |
 13. |    Andrea B. 15.25273   13.66667   4.333333 27.66667   .0402     .1128    15.8726   |
 14. |     Generoso 15.08112   15        13        17.33333  0         0         13.5622   |
 15. |   Alessandro 13.76431   13.14286  12.57143  16        0         0         14.9818   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. |     Cristian 12.7868    12.5      10.5      15.4      0         0         16.541    |
 17. |    Saintjust 12.75952   12.4      10.4      15.4      0          .0002    16.5604   |
 18. |       Mattia 11.86052   11.76471  10.41177  13.41177  0         0         17.7644   |
 19. |      William 10.94305   10.90909  10.90909  10.90909  0         0         19.392    |
 20. |     Riccardo 10.84638   10.45455   7.727273 14.45455  0         0         19.8338   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. |        Nigel 10.39425    9.25      7        15.75     0          .0004    20.645    |
 22. |    Daniel O. 10.1726     9.666667  6        15.16667  0         0         20.9604   |
 23. |       Pietro  9.787476   9.689655  8.724138 10.96552  0         0         21.7024   |
 24. |        Mpfat  9.438372   9.142858  9.142858 10.14286  0         0         22.3848   |
 25. |       Jacopo  9.34912    9.1       6.2      12.7      0         0         22.1588   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 26. |  Giovanni B.  6.621016   6.307693  3.615385 10.11539  0         0         26.2106   |
 27. |   Michael M.  6.5202     6.5       6.5       6.5      0         0         26.5638   |
 28. |         Mago  6.0626     6         6         6         .0006     .0012    27.7774   |
 29. |    Daniel B.  5.38948    3.6       2.4      11.2      0         0         27.788    |
 30. |    Gianmarco  5.204691   4.727273  2.818182  8.363636 0         0         28.028    |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 31. |       Giulio  2.853523   2.538461  1.615385  4.538462 0         0         31.458    |
 32. |      Tommaso  2.5351     2.5       2.5       2.5      0         0         31.4128   |
 33. |    Simone R.  2.254691   2         1.545455  3.272727 0         0         32.4516   |
 34. |    Simone G.  1.705633   1.666667  1.666667  1.666667 0         0         33.569    |
 35. |      Desiree   .1042     0         0         0        0         0         34.9268   |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 36. |    Andrea C.   .0463143  0         0         0        0         0         34.9934   |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Comments: you will note that Daniele is clearly first in terms of both median score and mean rank, but Vasilj (who only has one player, Gabbiadini) has the highest expected scout score. This is going to be very interesting.

Cycle 2

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |        scout mean_S~2 med~2012 p10~2012 p90~2012 pwi~2012 pto~2012 meanra~2 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |    Andrea V. 241.1256 239      178      304       .5494    .9386    1.7054  |
  2. |   Michael H. 222.5056 219      174      275       .3288    .918     2.04    |
  3. |       Binder 165.6762 160      109      230       .0694    .4148    4.1428  |
  4. |       Pietro 155.5036 152      108      209       .029     .3144    4.5062  |
  5. |      Abubakr 141.8248 138       99      190       .0118    .1912    5.1616  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |      Tom two 108.4472 103       45      178       .0116    .104     7.3752  |
  7. |     Riccardo 106.0526 102       80      137       .0004    .0134    7.2088  |
  8. |      Daniele  96.4938  92       37      160       .0064    .0674    8.1148  |
  9. |      William  93.9766  90       38      154       .002     .0474    8.2318  |
 10. |         Mark  73.163   70       42      110      0         .0026    9.5828  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | Sid Debgupta  71.9486  70       32      114      0         .0038    9.711   |
 12. |    Sid at n.  37.1726  33       21       59      0        0        12.4266  |
 13. |    Gianmarco  28.1788  24       -6       70      0         .0002   13.919   |
 14. |        Mpfat  25.5052  17       12       54      0        0        13.6136  |
 15. |        Jesus  20.9524  12       -3       59      0        0        14.6284  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. |      Alberto  17.724   11       10       34      0        0        14.525   |
 17. |       Jacopo    .0102   0        0        0      0        0        16.6784  |
 18. |         Elko   0        0        0        0      0        0        16.6804  |
 19. |       Mattia  -5.4546  -7       -7       -5      0        0        18.7974  |
 20. |    Saintjust -16.5518 -23      -23        1      0        0        19.3972  |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Comments: very tight battle between Andrea and Michael at the top, perhaps Binder still in with an outside chance.

Cycle 3

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |        scout mean_S~4 med~2014 p10~2014 p90~2014 pwi~2014 pto~2014 meanra~4 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |      Daniele 227.1972 222      140      321       .4048    .8666    2.1092  |
  2. |    Andrea V. 209.381  203       97      330       .3386    .743     2.7708  |
  3. |        Nigel 143.5914 137       38      260       .123     .4414    4.8226  |
  4. |      Abubakr 127.0794 121       33      228       .074     .3472    5.2758  |
  5. |       Binder 113.3564 109       44      189       .0236    .2378    5.444   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |   Michael H.  75.9628  69       10      150       .0092    .0952    7.565   |
  7. |    Gianmarco  69.6656  62      -16      164       .0186    .12      8.3768  |
  8. | Sid Debgupta  65.7102  60       24      114       .0002    .0286    7.783   |
  9. |      Tom two  53.1044  47        3      111       .0016    .0354    8.9088  |
 10. |  Giovanni T.  37.54    26      -46      137       .01      .0688   10.6258  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. |      William  25.9752  20       -2       63      0         .0014   10.9538  |
 12. |      Jackson  12.9204   0      -23       68      0         .006    12.5338  |
 13. |        Jesus  10.4476   -.5     -8       46      0         .0018   12.7024  |
 14. |         Mark   8.7632   0      -37       65       .0002    .0068   12.7678  |
 15. |        Mpfat   7.5426   2        2       22      0        0        12.702   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. |      Alberto   6.4916  -3      -42       68       .0008    .008    12.9912  |
 17. |    Saintjust -15.4168 -23.5    -76       56       .0008    .0066   14.1548  |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Comments: this one also looks very tight between Andrea and myself, but it’s clearly to early to dismiss Nigel and Abubakr (and many other scouts, in fact).

Cycle 4

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |        scout mean_S~6 med~2016 p10~2016 p90~2016 pwi~2016 pto~2016 meanra~6 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |      Daniele 259.5068 253      145      383       .592     .9584    1.6008  |
  2. |    Saintjust 195.4326 191       56      339       .299     .7806    2.848   |
  3. |    Andrea V. 116.5054 109       23      216       .0526    .4984    4.374   |
  4. |      Alberto  97.4784  89       -5      210       .0504    .3842    5.418   |
  5. |  Giovanni T.  55.543   47       -5      127       .0062    .1288    6.9992  |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |       Binder  49.8612  44       16       92       .0006    .0578    6.6276  |
  7. |   Michael H.  41.3256  34       -9      100       .0016    .078     7.8146  |
  8. |      Jackson  32.1604  22       -5       85       .0004    .0436    8.5402  |
  9. |        Jesus  28.279   22       -1       67      0         .0192    8.554   |
 10. |    Gianmarco  27.4882  19       -5       73       .0002    .0268    8.792   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. |        Nigel  22.9774  15        1       57      0         .0092    9.0464  |
 12. |      Abubakr  15.4044   1      -14       67       .0004    .0286   10.2384  |
 13. | Sid Debgupta  14.7936  11        3       33      0         .0008    9.7174  |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Comments: Here the race seems to be between myself and Saintjust, but it’s far too early to tell.

I will send Andrea an Excel file with all the details, so that people can play around with it and do their own analysis [Andrea chiming in: if you want the file, please send an email to milivella@gmail.com and I’ll send the file to you].

Daniele

Trades without collusion

Inspired by a post on rec.sport.soccer by Daniele about the fact that trades can be used to exchange – so to -speak – points, i.e. chances to win a cycle, I have asked my self: is there a way to have trades without any chance of collusion? Here are three ideas I proposed in my reply (each one of them is a different reform).

a

You can only trade 0-point players.

b

The player with most points (among the two players involved in the trade) has to be older [possibly: by n years] than the other players. *

[Here and below: asterisk means “the points scored by the a player before the trade is transferred together with the player”. E.g. I give Dossena to Daniele, he gets 9 points scored by Dossena so far + all the points Dossena will score in the rest of his career.]

c

Trades happen in the following way: a scout posts on the mailing list putting a player of his/hers (let’s call this player A) “on the market”. For a week anyone can offer a player of his/hers (B) in exchange for the A, as long as B is younger than A, [possibly: has more caps than A,] has had at least one cap in the last 365 days, and is not retired from football or international football. At the end of the week, the best offer wins, where “best” = “with most points”. *

Example: Michael H. puts Valbuena (60 points, born on September 1984) on the market. Andrea V. offers Montolivo (62 points, 1985), Daniele offers Cazorla (91 points, December 1984). Result: Valbuena and his 60 points go to Daniele, Cazorla and his 91 points go to Michael H.

Variant: best offer is determined not just by the FS score of the player, but by his age as well (a formula needs to be specified, of course – maybe we can just use the predicted score?).

2015 FIFA awards

Time to update the tables about FS players in the FIFA Ballon d’Or ranking (previously on this blog…)…

Player (Scout cycle)	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Oezil (MH 2007-10)	13th	11th	14th	16th	–	–
Mueller (Daniele 2007-10)	15th	13th	–	17th	5th	6th
Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)	–	10th	13th	5th	7th	3rd
Pique (Benny 2007-10)	–	23rd	21st	–	–	–
Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)	–	–	19th	23rd	3rd	7th
Busquets (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)	–	–	20th	–	–	–
Balotelli (Benny 2007-10)	–	–	23rd	–	–	–
Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)	–	–	–	–	9th	21st
Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)	–	–	–	–	10th	–
Diego Costa (MH 2012-14)	–	–	–	–	11th	–
Goetze (Andrea V. 2010-12)	–	–	–	–	15th	–
Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)	–	–	–	–	22th	15th

…and in the Team of the Year (AKA FIFPro World XI) (previously on this blog…):

Player (Scout cycle)	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pique (Benny 2007-10)	DF	DF	DF	–	–	–
Marcelo (Andrea V. 2007-10)	–	–	DF	–		DF
Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)	–	–	–	GK	GK	GK
David Luiz (Andrea V. 2010-12)	–	–	–	–	DF	–
Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)	–	–	–	–	MF	–
Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)	–	–	–	–	MF	–
Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)	–	–	–	–	–	MF
Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)	–	–	–	–	–	FW

Not just international football

(the source is transfermarkt.com once again)

All matches in career

Players with most apps

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career apps
Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	589
Frey	Mattia	2007-10	588
Milner	Tom one	2007-10	535
Navas	Tom one	2007-10	506
Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	492
Neuer	Matthias	2007-10	487
Cazorla	Daniele	2007-10	485
Mandanda	Benny	2007-10	482
Baines	Mpfat	2007-10	476
Garcia	Abubakr	2014-16	471

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career apps
1979	Brana	Mattia	2007-10	284
1980	Frey	Mattia	2007-10	588
1981	Warnock	William	2007-10	439
1982	Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	589
1983	Dawson M.	Mpfat	2007-10	454
1984	Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	492
1985	Navas	Tom one	2007-10	506
1986	Milner	Tom one	2007-10	535
1987	Matuidi	Generoso	2007-10	438
1988	Ozil	Michael H.	2007-10	444
1989	Conti	Gianmarco	2007-10	462
1990	Kroos	Matthias	2007-10	364
1991	Griezmann	Sid Debgupta	2010-12	279
1992	Leno	Andrea V.	2014-16	298
1993	Draxler	Binder	2010-12	243
1994	Arnold	Andrea V.	2012-14	211
1995	Meyer	Jackson	2012-14	184
1996	Werner	Andrea V.	2012-14	148
1997	Brown	Alberto	2014-16	84
1998	Alena	Abubakr	2014-16	14
1999	Donnarumma	Daniele	2014-16	20

Players with most goals

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career goals
Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	220
Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	201
Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	186
Muller	Daniele	2007-10	183
Gomis	Daniele	2007-10	163
Negredo	Andrea V.	2007-10	151
Giroud	Michael H.	2010-12	151
Gignac	Benny	2007-10	146
Llorente	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	142
Neymar	Jesus	2007-10	142

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career goals
1979	Brana	Mattia	2007-10	7
1980	Amauri	Daniele	2007-10	105
1981	Warnock	William	2007-10	17
1982	Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	220
1983	Quagliarella	Alessandro	2007-10	126
1984	Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	186
1985	Gomis	Daniele	2007-10	163
1986	Giroud	Michael H.	2010-12	151
1987	Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	201
1988	Diego Costa	Michael H.	2012-14	131
1989	Muller	Daniele	2007-10	183
1990	Dost	Andrea V.	2012-14	123
1991	Lasogga	Binder	2010-12	101
1992	Neymar	Jesus	2007-10	142
1993	Icardi	Daniele	2012-14	81
1994	Depay	Tom two	2010-12	65
1994	Yesil	Michael H.	2012-14	65
1995	Selke	Giovanni T.	2012-14	60
1996	Werner	Andrea V.	2012-14	69
1997	Solanke	Alberto	2014-16	30
1998	Alena	Abubakr	2014-16	6

Players with most apps+goals

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career apps + goals
Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	809
Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	678
Gomis	Daniele	2007-10	630
Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	608
Muller	Daniele	2007-10	601
Milner	Tom one	2007-10	595
Frey	Mattia	2007-10	588
Llorente	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	579
Cazorla	Daniele	2007-10	560
Navas	Tom one	2007-10	545

The correlation between career apps+goals and FS points is 0.53.

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	Career apps + goals
1979	Brana	Mattia	2007-10	291
1980	Frey	Mattia	2007-10	588
1981	Warnock	William	2007-10	456
1982	Lambert	Daniele	2012-14	809
1983	Quagliarella	Alessandro	2007-10	537
1984	Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	678
1985	Gomis	Daniele	2007-10	630
1986	Milner	Tom one	2007-10	595
1987	Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	608
1988	Ozil	Michael H.	2007-10	522
1989	Muller	Daniele	2007-10	601
1990	Kroos	Matthias	2007-10	411
1991	Griezmann	Sid Debgupta	2010-12	369
1992	Neymar	Jesus	2007-10	391
1993	Draxler	Binder	2010-12	300
1994	Arnold	Andrea V.	2012-14	265
1995	Meyer	Jackson	2012-14	241
1996	Werner	Andrea V.	2012-14	217
1997	Brown	Alberto	2014-16	104
1998	Alena	Abubakr	2014-16	20
1999	Donnarumma	Daniele	2014-16	20

UEFA Champions League

Players with most apps

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL apps
Pique	Benny	2007-10	78
Neuer	Matthias	2007-10	76
Muller	Daniele	2007-10	74
Busquets	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	72
Motta T.	Mpfat	2007-10	69
Arbeloa	William	2007-10	68
Pedro	Mattia	2007-10	64
Clichy	Benny	2007-10	62
Marcelo	Andrea V.	2007-10	60
Ozil	Michael H.	2007-10	59

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL apps
1980	Amauri	Daniele	2007-10	14
1981	Dossena	Andrea V.	2007-10	12
1982	Motta T.	Mpfat	2007-10	69
1983	Arbeloa	William	2007-10	68
1984	Flamini	Andrea V.	2007-10	53
1985	Clichy	Benny	2007-10	62
1986	Neuer	Matthias	2007-10	76
1987	Pedro	Mattia	2007-10	64
1988	Busquets	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	72
1989	Muller	Daniele	2007-10	74
1990	Kroos	Matthias	2007-10	58
1991	Mangala	Gianmarco	2010-12	26
1992	Gotze	Andrea V.	2010-12	41
1993	Varane	Andrea V.	2010-12	39
1994	Pogba	Daniele	2012-14	30
1995	Meyer	Jackson	2012-14	16
1996	Brandt	Giovanni T.	2012-14	13
1997	Solanke	Alberto	2014-16	1
1997	Augustin	Saintjust	2014-16	1

Players with most goals

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL goals
Muller	Daniele	2007-10	33
Neymar	Jesus	2007-10	16
Pedro	Mattia	2007-10	15
Willian	Jacopo	2007-10	14
Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	13
Reus	Pietro	2010-12	12
Walcott	Andrea V.	2007-10	11
Di Maria	Generoso	2007-10	11
Alex Teixeira	Andrea C.	2007-10	11
Gotze	Andrea V.	2010-12	11

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL goals
1980	Guiza	Daniele	2007-10	2
1981	Dossena	Andrea V.	2007-10	1
1982	Motta T.	Mpfat	2007-10	5
1982	Borriello	Daniele	2007-10	5
1983	Jadson	Daniele	2010-12	9
1984	Kiessling	Mpfat	2007-10	4
1985	Lavezzi	Alberto	2007-10	9
1985	Gomis	Daniele	2007-10	9
1986	Giroud	Michael H.	2010-12	10
1987	Pedro	Mattia	2007-10	15
1988	Willian	Jacopo	2007-10	14
1989	Muller	Daniele	2007-10	33
1990	Alex Teixeira	Andrea C.	2007-10	11
1991	Griezmann	Sid Debgupta	2010-12	6
1991	Tello	Abubakr	2010-12	6
1992	Neymar	Jesus	2007-10	16
1993	Draxler	Binder	2010-12	5
1994	Marquinhos Aoas	Daniele	2012-14	3
1994	Sterling	William	2010-12	3
1995	Martial	Nigel	2012-14	2
1996	Coman	Nigel	2012-14	1
1996	Sane	Saintjust	2014-16	1

Players with most apps+goals

Overall

Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL apps + goals
Muller	Daniele	2007-10	107
Pique	Benny	2007-10	87
Pedro	Mattia	2007-10	79
Busquets	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	76
Neuer	Matthias	2007-10	76
Motta T.	Mpfat	2007-10	74
Arbeloa	William	2007-10	71
Willian	Jacopo	2007-10	68
Higuain	Andrea V.	2007-10	66
Ozil	Michael H.	2007-10	66

The correlation between UCL apps+goals and FS points is 0.73.

By birth year

Birth year	Player	Scout	Picking cycle	UCL apps+goals
1980	Amauri	Daniele	2007-10	15
1981	Dossena	Andrea V.	2007-10	13
1982	Motta T.	Mpfat	2007-10	74
1983	Arbeloa	William	2007-10	71
1984	Flamini	Andrea V.	2007-10	53
1985	Clichy	Benny	2007-10	62
1986	Neuer	Matthias	2007-10	76
1987	Pique	Benny	2007-10	87
1988	Busquets	Sid Debgupta	2007-10	76
1989	Muller	Daniele	2007-10	107
1990	Kroos	Matthias	2007-10	64
1991	Griezmann	Sid Debgupta	2010-12	27
1991	Tello	Abubakr	2010-12	27
1991	Mangala	Gianmarco	2010-12	27
1992	Gotze	Andrea V.	2010-12	52
1993	Varane	Andrea V.	2010-12	39
1994	Pogba	Daniele	2012-14	31
1995	Meyer	Jackson	2012-14	17
1996	Brandt	Giovanni T.	2012-14	13
1997	Solanke	Alberto	2014-16	1
1997	Augustin	Saintjust	2014-16	1

Positions

Here are the number of FS players in each position (source for positions: “main position” in transfermarkt.com):

Position	# of players	Out of 11
Centre Forward	120	1.8
Centre Back	102	1.5
Central Midfield	85	1.3
Attacking Midfield	73	1.1
Defensive Midfield	65	1.0
Left-Back	64	1.0
Right Wing	60	0.9
Left Wing	57	0.9
Right-Back	44	0.7
Keeper	36	0.5
Secondary Striker	17	0.3
Right Midfield	7	0.1
Left Midfield	5	0.1

The last column is

number_of_players_in_that_position / total_number_of_players * 11

so we know that the “average FS XI” (assuming it makes sense) is something resembling a 3-2-3-2:

GK – RB CB LB – DM CM – RW AM LW – CF CF