On fire

Here are the FS players whose market value has improved the most in the last 14 months, according to Transfertmarkt:

1. Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)
2. Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)
3. Koke (Andrea V. 2012-14)
4. Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)
5. Alcacer (Sid Debgupta 2012-14)
6. Reus (Pietro 2010-12)
7. Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)
8. Iturbe (Binder 2007-10)
9. Mangala (Gianmarco 2010-12)
10. Verratti (Gianmarco 2007-10)
11. Shaw (Michael H. 2012-14)
12. Schneiderlin (Abubakr 2012-14)
13. Perez (Nigel 2007-10)
14. Roberto Firmino (Andrea V. 2012-14)
15. Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)
16. Diego Costa (Michael H. 2012-14)

Average scores

Satisfying Alberto’s curiosity… Here are the rankings if the 1st cycle rule (scout score = average score of the players he picked) were used. The rank is compared with the real one, so e.g. in the 2nd cycle Pietro is +2 because he goes from 3rd in the real ranking to 1st in this one.

2nd picking cycle

1. (+2) Pietro 20.25
2. (+2) Abubakr 17.00
3. (+2) Riccardo 16.40
4. (-2) Andrea V. 14.60
5. (-4) Michael H. 13.92
6. (=) Binder 10.25
7. (=) Mark 9.80
8. (+7) Daniele 6.29
9. (=) Alberto 6.25
10. (+2) William 5.80
11. (-1) Sid Debgupta 5.75
12. (-1) Tom two 5.50
13. (-5) Mpfat 5.00
14. (+2) Gianmarco 2.83
15. (-2) Mattia 0.33
16. (-2) Jesus 0.33
17. (=) Saintjust 0.20

2nd picking cycle, predicted final score

1. (+3) Pietro 46.04
2. (+3) Abubakr 38.38
3. (-2) Andrea V. 37.69
4. (+3) Riccardo 33.78
5. (+3) Tom two 33.47
6. (-4) Michael H. 28.85
7. (+2) William 27.89
8. (+2) Mark 27.69
9. (-6) Binder 27.19
10. (+2) Sid Debgupta 22.55
11. (=) Gianmarco 19.67
12. (-6) Daniele 18.19
13. (=) Alberto 16.68
14. (+1) Jesus 15.35
15. (-1) Saintjust 13.83
16. (=) Mattia 13.12
17. (=) Mpfat 11.20

3rd picking cycle

1. (+1) Daniele 6.92
2. (-1) Sid Debgupta 5.00
3. (+4) Binder 4.00
4. (+5) Michael H. 2.89
5. (+11) Abubakr 2.09
6. (+11) Andrea V. 1.86
7. (-4) Mpfat 1.00
8. (-2) Tom two 0.75
9. (+3) Gianmarco 0.73
10. (+5) Saintjust 0.65
11. (-1) Mark 0.63
12. (+2) Nigel 0.53
13. (-9) William 0.33
14. (-6) Jackson 0.20
15. (-10) Jesus 0.00
16. (-4) Alberto 0.00
17. (-2) Giovanni T. 0.00

3rd picking cycle, predicted final score

1. (+2) Daniele 30.90
2. (+12) Sid Debgupta 30.72
3. (+5) Michael H. 26.53
4. (+5) Binder 26.35
5. (=) Gianmarco 24.59
6. (-5) Abubakr 24.44
7. (+5) Tom two 23.51
8. (-6) Andrea V. 22.46
9. (+6) Jesus 21.78
10. (-4) Giovanni T. 21.62
11. (-7) Nigel 20.37
12. (+1) Jackson 19.77
13. (-3) Alberto 18.36
14. (-7) Saintjust 18.28
15. (-4) Mark 18.21
16. (=) William 17.70
17. (=) Mpfat 12.20

The travelling scout problem

Hey, we know the distance of each player from each other, so we can a answer the following question: what is the shortest route that visits each player? This question is the travelling salesman problem, but without the clause that you have to return to the original city/player.

To find an approximate solution to the problem, I’m using the tsp-solver Python library.

If you solve the problem given the distance as defined in the Map post (see above), you get a boring result:

Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)
Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)
Hummels (Mark 2007-10)
Khedira (Michael H. 2007-10)
Ozil (Michael H. 2007-10)
Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)
Gotze (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Muller (Daniele 2007-10)
Schurrle (Riccardo 2010-12)
Welbeck (Sid 2007-10)
Wilshere (Mark 2007-10)
Milner (Tom one 2007-10)
Hart (Daniele 2007-10)
Lloris (Michael H. 2007-10)
Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)
Matuidi (Generoso 2007-10)
Cabaye (Mark 2007-10)
Valbuena (Michael H. 2007-10)
Giroud (Michael H. 2010-12)
Cazorla (Daniele 2007-10)
Pedro (Mattia 2007-10)
Busquets (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Pique (Benny 2007-10)
Gago (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)
Higuain (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Balotelli (Benny 2007-10)
Marchisio (Daniele 2007-10)
Bonucci (Pietro 2007-10)
David Luiz (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)

As you see, the “travelling scout” always moves to a player from the same nation, and if he can’t, to a player similar in position and/or age.

The cause of this boring result is that, if two player are from different nations, this is a 1.00 distance in that dimension, i.e. the same distance that you get only between goalkeeper and forwards in the “position” dimension, and between the oldest player and the youngest one in the “date of birth” dimension. And conversely the only other distance in the “nation” dimension is 0.00, when two players are from the same nation; but in the “date of birth” dimension you get a distance of 0.00 only if the two players were born in exactly the same day. So the discrete dimension (nation) dominates over the continuous ones (position, date of birth).

So one would expect more interesting results if he/she only uses continuous dimensions, e.g.

• date of birth
• position
• predicted score

I computed the distances between all FS players in these three dimensions and then ran tsp-solver again. Here’s the result:

Guglielmi (Nigel 2012-14)
Abner (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Capradossi (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Tah (Binder 2012-14)
Sule (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Gaya (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Kempf (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Romagnoli (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Doria (Abubakr 2012-14)
Zouma (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Laporte (Michael H. 2012-14)
Rugani (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Dier (Giovanni T. 2014-16)
Umtiti (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Fabinho (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Robinson (William 2012-14)
Kolasinac (Binder 2012-14)
Wisdom (William 2012-14)
Dijks (Jackson 2012-14)
Sabelli (Saintjust 2014-16)
Miquel (Daniele 2010-12)
Caulker (Mpfat 2012-14)
Camporese (Daniele 2010-12)
Mannini (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Gomez (Mattia 2010-12)
Muniesa (Simone R. 2007-10)
Camilleri (Desiree 2007-10)
Isimat-Mirin (Mark 2012-14)
Crescenzi (Simone R. 2007-10)
Bell (Mattia 2007-10)
Martinez I. (Sid Debgupta 2012-14)
Rodwell (Michael H. 2007-10)
Mario Fernandes (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Pezzella (Saintjust 2012-14)
Bartley (Giulio 2007-10)
Montoya (Jackson 2012-14)
Musacchio (Sid Debgupta 2010-12)
Fabio (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Rafael da Silva (Daniele 2007-10)
Caldirola (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Albertazzi (Pietro 2007-10)
Corchia (Nigel 2012-14)
Rafael Toloi (Cristian 2007-10)
Munoz (Nigel 2007-10)
Regini (Jacopo 2007-10)
Douglas Pereira (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Kelly (Daniele 2010-12)
Mattock (Andrea B. 2007-10)
Dawson C. (Alberto 2012-14)
Contento (Pietro 2007-10)
Bennett (Cristian 2007-10)
Donati (Alberto 2014-16)
Diego Renan (Saintjust 2010-12)
Luciani (Simone R. 2007-10)
Breno (Jesus 2007-10)
Jose Angel (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Escudero (Michael H. 2010-12)
Bellusci (Simone G. 2007-10)
Mazzotta (Simone R. 2007-10)
Sidnei (Generoso 2007-10)
Ariaudo (Daniele 2007-10)
Orban (Saintjust 2012-14)
Tomkins (William 2010-12)
Angella (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Kopplin (Riccardo 2007-10)
Felipe Mattioni (Mark 2007-10)
Marcellis (Benny 2007-10)
Cissokho (Tom one 2007-10)
Shawcross (Mattia 2007-10)
Forlin (Sid Debgupta 2010-12)
Mancienne (William 2007-10)
Rubin (Benny 2007-10)
Volta (Riccardo 2007-10)
Bruno Cortes (Jesus 2010-12)
Wheater (Benny 2007-10)
Marzoratti (Benny 2007-10)
Santacroce (Daniele 2007-10)
Jonathan (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Jose Enrique (William 2010-12)
Geromel (Michael H. 2007-10)
Compper (William 2007-10)
Coda (Benny 2007-10)
Ferdinand (Giulio 2007-10)
Mulder (Elko 2010-12)
Hoyte (Giulio 2007-10)
Lell (Michael H. 2007-10)
Raggi (Benny 2007-10)
Ciani (Pietro 2007-10)
Turner (Benny 2007-10)
Loovens (Mattia 2007-10)
Molinaro (Daniele 2010-12)
Dawson M. (Mpfat 2007-10)
Maidana (Benny 2007-10)
De Ceglie (Benny 2007-10)
Motta M. (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Tremoulinas (Giulio 2007-10)
N'Zogbia (Mpfat 2010-12)
Drenthe (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Huddlestone (Giulio 2007-10)
Rafinha de Souza (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Thiago Neves (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Datolo (Abubakr 2007-10)
Flamini (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Rosina (Alessandro 2007-10)
Valero (Riccardo 2010-12)
Diego Souza (Mpfat 2007-10)
Galloppa (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Zapater (Mpfat 2007-10)
Guarente (Benny 2007-10)
Cigarini (Alberto 2007-10)
Tissone (Pietro 2007-10)
Michu (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Bertolo (Pietro 2007-10)
Valeri (Tom one 2007-10)
Hunt (Michael H. 2007-10)
Bruins (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Danilinho (Jesus 2007-10)
Noble (Benny 2007-10)
Dessena (Tom one 2007-10)
Granero (Mpfat 2007-10)
Fernando (Abubakr 2007-10)
Chantome (Mark 2007-10)
Jeffren (Mattia 2007-10)
Kerlon (Mark 2007-10)
Denilson (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Johnson M. (Pietro 2007-10)
Blanco (Mattia 2007-10)
Cattermole (Simone R. 2007-10)
Barilla (Simone G. 2007-10)
Muamba (Giulio 2007-10)
Emnes (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Aissati (Generoso 2007-10)
Cia (Jacopo 2007-10)
Jucilei (Pietro 2010-12)
Formica (Riccardo 2007-10)
Susaeta (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Capel (Michael H. 2007-10)
Renato Augusto (Michael H. 2007-10)
Carlos Eduardo (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Garcia (Abubakr 2014-16)
Trasch (Mattia 2007-10)
Sam (Binder 2010-12)
Anderson (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Bonaventura (Daniel B. 2007-10)
Bertoglio (Sid 2007-10)
Hahn (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Camacho (Simone R. 2007-10)
Iturraspe (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Johnson A. (Michael M. 2007-10)
Diaby (Sid 2007-10)
Nocerino (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Bolatti (Cristian 2007-10)
Michel Bastos (Mark 2007-10)
Brana (Mattia 2007-10)
Jadson (Daniele 2010-12)
D'Agostino (Benny 2007-10)
Cossu (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Arteta (Pietro 2007-10)
Antonini (Alberto 2010-12)
Pelletieri (Tom one 2007-10)
Warnock (William 2007-10)
Ceara (Jesus 2007-10)
Dominguez S. (Mattia 2007-10)
Dossena (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Braafheid (Abubakr 2007-10)
Cassani (Abubakr 2007-10)
Balzaretti (Daniele 2010-12)
Dante (Binder 2012-14)
Clichy (Benny 2007-10)
Monreal (Mattia 2007-10)
Astori (Daniele 2012-14)
Tasci (Michael H. 2007-10)
Ansaldi (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Paletta (Tom one 2007-10)
Beck (Michael H. 2007-10)
Fazio (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Monzon (Cristian 2007-10)
Bocchetti (Benny 2007-10)
Kaboul (Tom one 2007-10)
Vermeer (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Viviano (Riccardo 2007-10)
Marchesin (Saintjust 2012-14)
Fiorillo (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Asenjo (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Thuram-Ulien (Generoso 2007-10)
Kraft (Pietro 2007-10)
Mannone (Daniel B. 2007-10)
Ustari (Giulio 2007-10)
Velthuizen (Daniele 2007-10)
Heaton (Pietro 2007-10)
Renan (Jesus 2007-10)
Frey (Mattia 2007-10)
Marchetti (Simone G. 2007-10)
Adler (Matthias 2007-10)
Krul (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Bardi (Alberto 2012-14)
Gallinetta (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Rulli (Abubakr 2012-14)
Leali (Alberto 2012-14)
Van der Hart (Nigel 2012-14)
Scuffet (Daniele 2012-14)
Batalla (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Perin (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Ter Stegen (Andrea V. 2012-14)
De Gea (Riccardo 2007-10)
Sirigu (Simone R. 2007-10)
Mandanda (Benny 2007-10)
Abate (Daniele 2007-10)
Koscielny (Riccardo 2010-12)
Maggio (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Motta T. (Mpfat 2007-10)
Young (William 2007-10)
Hernanes (Jesus 2007-10)
Perez (Nigel 2007-10)
Giovinco (Tom one 2007-10)
De Guzman (Michael H. 2007-10)
Martinez J. (Michael H. 2007-10)
Pastore (Abubakr 2007-10)
Schneiderlin (Abubakr 2012-14)
Narsingh (Andrea V. 2010-12)
M'Vila (Pietro 2007-10)
El Shaarawy (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Philippe Coutinho (Andrea B. 2007-10)
Isco (Tom two 2010-12)
Clasie (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Kramer (Abubakr 2012-14)
Bender L. (Michael H. 2010-12)
Banega (Alberto 2007-10)
Lallana (Binder 2012-14)
Navas (Tom one 2007-10)
Debuchy (Michael H. 2010-12)
Baines (Mpfat 2007-10)
Garay (Tom one 2007-10)
Smalling (Sid 2010-12)
Darmian (Daniele 2012-14)
Badstuber (Cristian 2007-10)
Ranocchia (Alessandro 2007-10)
Azpilicueta (Nigel 2007-10)
Danilo Luiz (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Mustafi (Binder 2012-14)
Jones (Riccardo 2007-10)
Veltman (Saintjust 2012-14)
Willems (Daniele 2010-12)
Shaw (Michael H. 2012-14)
Stones (Nigel 2012-14)
Marquinhos Aoas (Daniele 2012-14)
Chambers (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Silva (Saintjust 2014-16)
Kongolo (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Rekik (Binder 2012-14)
Mammana (Abubakr 2012-14)
Ake (Nigel 2012-14)
Saul (Daniele 2014-16)
Mastour (Saintjust 2012-14)
Boga (Nigel 2012-14)
Gaudino (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Bazoer (Saintjust 2014-16)
Coman (Nigel 2012-14)
Brandt (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Oztunali (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Werner (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Danilo Barbosa (Nigel 2012-14)
Lopez (Saintjust 2014-16)
Crecco (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Gnabry (Mark 2012-14)
Rabiot (Alberto 2012-14)
Correa (Abubakr 2012-14)
Keita (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Cristante (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Samper (Alberto 2014-16)
Kishna (Alberto 2014-16)
Vilhena (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Torres (Michael H. 2012-14)
Oliver (Abubakr 2012-14)
Ward-Prowse (Abubakr 2012-14)
Allione (Saintjust 2012-14)
Valdivia (Jesus 2012-14)
Vadillo (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Ocampos (Tom two 2010-12)
Paredes (Saintjust 2010-12)
Rozzi (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
De Paul (Tom two 2012-14)
Romero (Saintjust 2014-16)
Bernardeschi (Alberto 2012-14)
Talisca (Daniele 2014-16)
Lucas Piazon (Alberto 2007-10)
Can (Binder 2012-14)
Suarez (Alberto 2014-16)
Lucas Candido (Jesus 2012-14)
Bittencourt (Giovanni T. 2014-16)
Vietto (Saintjust 2012-14)
Suso (William 2010-12)
Carrera (Saintjust 2014-16)
Geis (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Rodrigo Caio (Mark 2012-14)
Kondogbia (Nigel 2012-14)
Kranevitter (Saintjust 2014-16)
Felipe Anderson (Daniele 2014-16)
Yildirim (Alessandro 2007-10)
Rafinha Alcantara (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Sturaro (Saintjust 2014-16)
Luque (Saintjust 2012-14)
McEachran (Riccardo 2010-12)
Van Ginkel (Saintjust 2012-14)
Lanzini (Saintjust 2012-14)
Lucas Silva (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Thauvin (Jackson 2012-14)
Crisetig (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Centurion (Saintjust 2012-14)
Fossati (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Ozyakup (Riccardo 2007-10)
John (Saintjust 2010-12)
Shelvey (William 2012-14)
Obiang (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Merkel (Binder 2010-12)
Battocchio (Saintjust 2014-16)
Cirigliano (Mark 2012-14)
Meza (Saintjust 2014-16)
Saponara (Alberto 2012-14)
Jorginho (Saintjust 2012-14)
Morosini (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Romeu (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Kakuta (Generoso 2007-10)
Fofana (Tom two 2010-12)
Cuenca (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Sneijder (Andrea B. 2007-10)
Canales (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Zuculini (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Lansbury (Cristian 2007-10)
Rose (Jesus 2007-10)
Barazite (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Di Tacchio (Jacopo 2007-10)
Lulinha (Benny 2007-10)
Marrone (Nigel 2007-10)
Ekici (Pietro 2007-10)
Illarramendi (Michael H. 2012-14)
Merida (Pietro 2007-10)
Mendicino (Jacopo 2007-10)
Gosling (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Falque (Pietro 2007-10)
Feghouli (Mattia 2007-10)
Albrighton (Mattia 2010-12)
Defederico (Mattia 2007-10)
Schelotto (Pietro 2007-10)
Herrera (Mark 2010-12)
Conti (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Sciacca (Tommaso 2007-10)
Parejo (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Gebhart (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Raggio Garibaldi (Pietro 2007-10)
Bargfrede (Michael H. 2010-12)
Aydilek (Jacopo 2007-10)
Donald (Giulio 2007-10)
Hewson (Pietro 2007-10)
Buonanotte (Daniele 2007-10)
El Kabir (Saintjust 2010-12)
Perotti (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Obertan (Generoso 2007-10)
Sinclair S. (Mpfat 2012-14)
Renan Oliveira (Giulio 2007-10)
Alex Teixeira (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Ferreyra (Saintjust 2012-14)
Ebecilio (Saintjust 2010-12)
Salvio (Generoso 2007-10)
Ricardo Goulart (Michael H. 2014-16)
De Jong L. (Mpfat 2010-12)
Douglas Costa (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Grosskreutz (Binder 2010-12)
Carroll (Michael H. 2010-12)
Okaka Chuka (Pietro 2007-10)
Holtby (Daniel B. 2007-10)
Di Santo (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Gameiro (Michael H. 2007-10)
Callejon (Daniele 2014-16)
Gomis (Daniele 2007-10)
Adrian (Binder 2010-12)
Agbonlahor (Tom one 2007-10)
Matri (Alberto 2010-12)
Hoarau (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Borriello (Daniele 2007-10)
Amauri (Daniele 2007-10)
Kiessling (Mpfat 2007-10)
Bentley (Benny 2007-10)
De la Red (Benny 2007-10)
Baumjohann (Simone G. 2007-10)
Cardozo (Saintjust 2007-10)
Gouffran (Michael H. 2007-10)
Scocco (Nigel 2012-14)
Pennant (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Bianchi (Alessandro 2007-10)
Cavenaghi (Daniele 2007-10)
Rodriguez L. (Mattia 2007-10)
Leandro Lima (Jesus 2007-10)
Derbyshire (Giulio 2007-10)
Schumacher (Jacopo 2007-10)
Lanzafame (Desiree 2007-10)
Bordagaray (Saintjust 2007-10)
Zarate (Generoso 2007-10)
Acquafresca (Benny 2007-10)
Campbell (William 2007-10)
Taison (Jesus 2007-10)
Modeste (Mattia 2007-10)
Biabiany (Cristian 2007-10)
Di Gennaro (Simone G. 2007-10)
Vaughan (Michael H. 2007-10)
Nijland (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Lindfield (Pietro 2007-10)
Guilherme (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Keirrison (Benny 2007-10)
Danti (Jacopo 2007-10)
Alan Kardec (Pietro 2007-10)
Dentinho (Mattia 2007-10)
Schieber (Michael H. 2010-12)
N'gog (Simone R. 2007-10)
Ciro (Pietro 2007-10)
Aaron (Daniel B. 2007-10)
Marconi (Tommaso 2007-10)
Mustacchio (Simone R. 2007-10)
Van Wolfswinkel (Riccardo 2010-12)
Piatti (Generoso 2007-10)
Pasquato (Simone G. 2007-10)
Walter (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Rodriguez Jay (Nigel 2012-14)
Nsue (Simone R. 2007-10)
Marilungo (Benny 2007-10)
Marquinhos Goncalves (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Kike (Giulio 2007-10)
Paloschi (William 2007-10)
Forestieri (Generoso 2007-10)
Tales (Jacopo 2010-12)
Brahimi (Cristian 2007-10)
Maicon (Riccardo 2007-10)
Ciano (Tommaso 2007-10)
Zeefuik (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Dost (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Sukuta-Pasu (Pietro 2007-10)
Aquino (Andrea C. 2007-10)
Fabbrini (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Saivet (Michael M. 2007-10)
Murphy (Pietro 2007-10)
Pacheco (William 2007-10)
Trecarichi (Generoso 2007-10)
Bojan (Alberto 2007-10)
Zigoni (Pietro 2007-10)
De Luca (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Borini (Simone R. 2007-10)
Funes Mori (Mattia 2010-12)
Macheda (Alessandro 2007-10)
Dumitru (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Tello (Abubakr 2010-12)
Lasogga (Binder 2010-12)
Araujo S. (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Baxter (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Iemmello (Jacopo 2007-10)
Beretta (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Comi (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Pereira (Giulio 2007-10)
Castaignos (Riccardo 2007-10)
Gabbiadini (Vasilij 2007-10)
Icardi (Daniele 2012-14)
Muniain (Michael H. 2007-10)
Zaha (Saintjust 2012-14)
Sanogo (Abubakr 2012-14)
Rodriguez Jese (Daniele 2010-12)
Melano (Saintjust 2012-14)
Araujo V. (Abubakr 2012-14)
Luan (Tom two 2012-14)
Bahebeck (Mark 2012-14)
Iturbe (Binder 2010-12)
Kane (Daniele 2014-16)
Berahino (Mark 2012-14)
Vitinho (Abubakr 2012-14)
Locadia (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Dybala (Andrea V. 2014-16)
Belotti (Daniele 2014-16)
Caseres (Saintjust 2014-16)
Andrada (Saintjust 2014-16)
Maurides (Jesus 2010-12)
Powell (Abubakr 2012-14)
Yesil (Michael H. 2012-14)
Villalba (Saintjust 2014-16)
Berardi (Saintjust 2012-14)
Benzia (Nigel 2012-14)
Niang (Abubakr 2012-14)
Leandro (Jesus 2012-14)
Selke (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
El Ghazi (Alberto 2014-16)
Petagna (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Simeone (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Sandro Ramirez (Alberto 2014-16)
Corentin (Alberto 2012-14)
Victor Andrade (Saintjust 2014-16)
Wilson (Abubakr 2012-14)
Martial (Nigel 2012-14)
Driussi (Giovanni T. 2012-14)
Cerri (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Maupay (Alberto 2012-14)
Loi (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Gabigol (Nigel 2012-14)
Zivkovic (Tom two 2012-14)
Sinclair J. (Jackson 2012-14)
Munir (Giovanni T. 2014-16)
Adryan (Abubakr 2012-14)
Akpom (Mark 2012-14)
Insigne (Alberto 2010-12)
Townsend (Abubakr 2012-14)
Cerci (Alberto 2010-12)
Menez (Tom one 2007-10)
Lucas Leiva (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Elia (Michael H. 2007-10)
Alvarez (Mark 2010-12)
Rudy (Binder 2010-12)
Pereyra (Daniele 2014-16)
Florenzi (Daniele 2012-14)
Casemiro (Daniele 2010-12)
Promes (Nigel 2012-14)
Bernat (Tom two 2012-14)
Meyer (Jackson 2012-14)
Goretzka (Michael H. 2012-14)
Arnold (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Boetius (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Deulofeu (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Maher (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Fred (Jesus 2010-12)
Klaassen (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Roberto Firmino (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Grenier (Daniele 2012-14)
Cabella (Abubakr 2012-14)
Marin (Matthias 2007-10)
Sandro Raniere (Cristian 2007-10)
Payet (Michael H. 2010-12)
Martin (Michael H. 2010-12)
Everton Ribeiro (Saintjust 2014-16)
Delph (Daniele 2014-16)
Giuliano (Pietro 2007-10)
Poli (Mago 2007-10)
De Jong S. (William 2007-10)
Bender S. (Daniele 2010-12)
Gonalons (Tom two 2007-10)
Paulo Henrique Ganso (Saintjust 2007-10)
Soriano (Jacopo 2007-10)
Guilavogui (Michael H. 2012-14)
Gundogan (Binder 2010-12)
Thiago (Daniel B. 2007-10)
Cleverley (Mark 2010-12)
Clyne (Daniele 2014-16)
Zappacosta (Saintjust 2014-16)
Laribi (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Stambouli (Abubakr 2012-14)
Cresswell (Michael H. 2014-16)
Cork (Mark 2007-10)
Capoue (Mark 2012-14)
Antonelli (Daniele 2010-12)
Aogo (Pietro 2007-10)
Wollscheid (Michael H. 2010-12)
Insua (William 2007-10)
Dominguez A. (Sid Debgupta 2010-12)
Anita (Saintjust 2007-10)
Bertrand (Daniele 2012-14)
San Jose (Sid Debgupta 2014-16)
De Silvestri (Daniele 2007-10)
Dede (Abubakr 2010-12)
Yanga-Mbiwa (Michael H. 2010-12)
Ogbonna (Tommaso 2007-10)
Van Aanholt (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Santon (Alberto 2007-10)
Walker (Daniele 2010-12)
Moreno (Saintjust 2012-14)
Flanagan (Abubakr 2012-14)
Carvajal (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Kurzawa (Daniele 2012-14)
Bartra (Abubakr 2012-14)
Bruma (Mark 2010-12)
Mangala (Gianmarco 2010-12)
Gibbs (Giulio 2007-10)
Schmelzer (Binder 2010-12)
Otamendi (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Criscito (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Filipe (Sid 2007-10)
Rami (Tom two 2007-10)
Andre Santos (Sid 2007-10)
Guiza (Daniele 2007-10)
Lambert (Daniele 2012-14)
Quagliarella (Alessandro 2007-10)
Llorente (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Negredo (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Diego Tardelli (Mark 2007-10)
Osvaldo (Benny 2007-10)
Leandro Damiao (Daniele 2010-12)
Bellarabi (Binder 2014-16)
Morata (Binder 2012-14)
Lacazette (Daniele 2010-12)
Volland (Abubakr 2012-14)
Zaza (Saintjust 2014-16)
Destro (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Diego Costa (Michael H. 2012-14)
Gignac (Benny 2007-10)
Rossi (Alessandro 2007-10)
Jo (Michael H. 2007-10)
Alexandre Pato (Jesus 2007-10)
Immobile (Giovanni B. 2007-10)
Lamela (Abubakr 2010-12)
Alcacer (Sid Debgupta 2012-14)
Walcott (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Reus (Pietro 2010-12)
Koke (Andrea V. 2012-14)
Henderson (Mark 2010-12)
Wijnaldum (Daniel O. 2007-10)
Paulinho (Abubakr 2010-12)
Luiz Gustavo (Binder 2010-12)
Marcelo (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Sakho (Mark 2007-10)
De Sciglio (William 2010-12)
Digne (Michael H. 2012-14)
Ginter (Gianmarco 2012-14)
Durm (Daniele 2012-14)
Fer (Riccardo 2007-10)
Bernard (Abubakr 2012-14)
Verratti (Gianmarco 2007-10)
Lucas Moura (Binder 2010-12)
Barkley (Michael H. 2010-12)
Draxler (Binder 2010-12)
Sterling (William 2010-12)
Chamberlain (Pietro 2010-12)
Depay (Tom two 2010-12)
Giroud (Michael H. 2010-12)
Balotelli (Benny 2007-10)
Lens (Pietro 2007-10)
Lavezzi (Alberto 2007-10)
Sturridge (William 2007-10)
Mata (Michael H. 2007-10)
Willian (Jacopo 2007-10)
Candreva (Pietro 2007-10)
Biglia (Saintjust 2007-10)
Arbeloa (William 2007-10)
Vlaar (Riccardo 2007-10)
Cahill (Pietro 2007-10)
Hart (Daniele 2007-10)
Neuer (Matthias 2007-10)
Lloris (Michael H. 2007-10)
Pique (Benny 2007-10)
Boateng (Mattia 2007-10)
David Luiz (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Hummels (Mark 2007-10)
Bonucci (Pietro 2007-10)
Howedes (Matthias 2007-10)
Alba (Michael H. 2010-12)
Rojo (Abubakr 2010-12)
Varane (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Blind (Pietro 2010-12)
Wilshere (Mark 2007-10)
Griezmann (Sid Debgupta 2010-12)
Sissoko (Cristian 2007-10)
Remy (Michael H. 2007-10)
Montolivo (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Cabaye (Mark 2007-10)
Matuidi (Generoso 2007-10)
Milner (Tom one 2007-10)
Valbuena (Michael H. 2007-10)
Marchisio (Daniele 2007-10)
Gago (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Khedira (Michael H. 2007-10)
Pogba (Daniele 2012-14)
Welbeck (Sid 2007-10)
Pedro (Mattia 2007-10)
Di Maria (Generoso 2007-10)
Cazorla (Daniele 2007-10)
Higuain (Andrea V. 2007-10)
Schurrle (Riccardo 2010-12)
Busquets (Sid Debgupta 2007-10)
Ozil (Michael H. 2007-10)
Kroos (Matthias 2007-10)
Gotze (Andrea V. 2010-12)
Muller (Daniele 2007-10)
Neymar (Jesus 2007-10)

A bit more interesting, indeed.

In some cases three or more players in a row have been picked by the same scout:

• Feghouli, Albrighton, Defederico: Mattia
• Pereyra, Florenzi, Casemiro: Daniele
• Arnold, Boetius, Deulofeu, Maher: Andrea V.

One can also generate routes in a single scout’s squad. E.g. here’s mine:

Gotze
Higuain
Gago
David Luiz
Varane
Marcelo
Montolivo
Koke
Walcott
Clasie
Narsingh
Roberto Firmino
Klaassen
Maher
Deulofeu
Boetius
Arnold
Cristante
Keita
Werner
Gaudino
Gaya
Sule
Fabinho
Van Aanholt
Mario Fernandes
Ansaldi
Fazio
Rafinha de Souza
Drenthe
Motta M.
Denilson
Thiago Neves
Flamini
Galloppa
Michu
Pennant
Walter
Marquinhos Goncalves
Dost
Araujo S.
Dybala
Petagna
Douglas Costa
Rafinha Alcantara
Lucas Silva
Obiang
Romeu
Cuenca
Iturraspe
Anderson
Nocerino
Dossena
Vermeer
Krul
Ter Stegen
Perin
Carvajal
Kongolo
Criscito
Lucas Leiva
Negredo
Maggio

Here’s Daniele’s squad:

Muller
Cazorla
Marchisio
Pogba
Hart
Durm
Darmian
Abate
Marquinhos Aoas
Willems
Scuffet
Kurzawa
Saul
Talisca
Felipe Anderson
Bender S.
Delph
Grenier
Pereyra
Florenzi
Casemiro
Clyne
Miquel
Camporese
Walker
Astori
Balzaretti
Molinaro
Santacroce
Velthuizen
Ariaudo
Bertrand
Kelly
Rafael da Silva
De Silvestri
Antonelli
Jadson
Buonanotte
Callejon
Gomis
Cavenaghi
Borriello
Amauri
Guiza
Lambert
Leandro Damiao
Lacazette
Belotti
Kane
Icardi
Rodriguez Jese

And here’s Alberto’s:

Bardi
Leali
Santon
Dawson C.
Donati
Antonini
Cigarini
Matri
Bojan
Saponara
Suarez
Lucas Piazon
Bernardeschi
Kishna
Samper
Rabiot
Maupay
Corentin
Sandro Ramirez
El Ghazi
Insigne
Cerci
Banega
Lavezzi

Regions

A map should have regions, shouldn’t it? So I added… boring regions to the two boring maps, using Python modules.

I made NetworkX draw again the first map, and then I asked this module to find the communities in the network. Here’s the result:



(full-size)

It’s more or less red for forwards, green for midfielders, blue for defenders and goalkeepers.

As of the second map, I asked SciPy to divide the players in four clusters (I chose the number using the elbow method). Here’s the result:



(full-size)

Basically, SciPy tells us that there are two groups of FS players: a minority of good ones (cyan) and a majority of bad ones, that can be on their turned divided in young (yellow), around their peak (blue), and relatively old (red).

As a final experiment, I drew a map based on PCA (like the second one), but only about my players, and told SciPy to create seven clusters. This time I chose the number arbitrarily: I wanted to know “if I have to divide my players in seven groups, what would these groups be?” Here’s the answer:



(full-size)

To make the different clusters easier to see, I drew some lines around them in Paint:



(full-size)

So here are the seven kinds of players Andrea V. picks, that can be described with some degree of precision as:

• Green = the good ones (just two…)
• Blue = the ones who have scored a nice amount of points
• Orange = the ones who have scored a few points
• Cyan = the too-young-to-know-whether-they-are-good-or-not ones
• Yellow = the young but promising ones
• Violet = the ones whose career have turned out bad… quite for sure
• Dark red = the worst picks ever

Another map

This time I should explain what I did first, and show the result later.

What I did

I took the numerical data (that are independent from other data) from the player database:

• Born
• Picked
• Caps when picked
• Goals when picked
• Caps
• Goals
• Caps in the last 365 days
• Goals in the last 365 days
• Position code
• Prediction

Then I applied principal component analysis to these data, “scal[ing] the variables to unit variance prior to calculating the covariance matrices” (source of the quotation).

These are “PC axes in terms of the measurement axes scaled by the standard deviations” (source of the quotation):



(full-size)

I.e. the first axis is mainly about the player performance (caps and goals in all the previous career, in the last year, and in the future). The second axis is about a player’s date of birth (and consequently, since generally speaking older players have been picked earlier, date of pick).

Consider that “the proportion of variance of each of the principal component axes” (source of the quotation), i.e. how important each axis is, is:

1. 0.37682652
2. 0.18444924
3. 0.12401321
4. 0.11242401
5. 0.06729027
6. 0.06396371
7. 0.03169756
8. 0.02825392
9. 0.01029589
10. 0.00078568

I.e. the first axis explains 38% of the variance in the dataset, the first two axes together explain 56% of it, etc.

Finally, I plotted the first two axes. This generated…

…the map

(full-size)

As one expects given the description above, the x (= first) axis is mainly about performance: left = better, right = worse. And the y (= second) axis is mainly about date of birth, i.e age: up = older, down = younger.

But there’s too much confusion. You can see it more clearly if we only plot the first ten players by alphabetical order:

(full-size)

[Software I used: matplotlib for PCA and plotting; matplotlib works on NumPy arrays; and both matplotlib and NumPy are Python extension packages.]

Lost Weekend

My rivalry with Daniele: where were we?

• There’s a Icardi vs. Dybala rivalry.
• Removing them, our forward battle is Higuain vs. Lacazette or Kane.
• My best player is Koke.

Then last weekend this happens:

• Saturday, part 1: Kane scores against Arsenal. Then he scores again, at 86′, to give Spurs a win against the Gunners. On Sunday, Higuain will fail to score a single goal, despite Napoli getting three past Udinese’s goalkeeper.
• Saturday, part 2: In the Madrid derby Koke gets injured after just 10′, and is replaced by Saul. Saul is a Futbolmetrix’ pick! He scores a wonderful overhead kick and assists one more goal in Atletico’s historic 4-0 win. A win they got without Koke…
• Sunday: Inter vs. Palermo, Icard vs. Dybala. Icardi: two goals, one post. Dybala: miss of the season.

Let me calmly express my feelings.

AAARGHHH!!!

The optimal strategy

One could think that, given FS scout scoring rules (since the 2nd picking cycle), the optimal strategy is just maximizing your score. But maybe it isn’t so simple… (highly unrealistic example follows)

There are two scouts, A and B. They both have picked two players in the current cycle. A’s prediction given their picks so far in the current cycle are: “I [i.e. A! 🙂 ] will score 9 points, B will score 0.” Now A sees a player Z and thinks: “Z has 10% chances to score 18 points, 90% chances to score 0 points (i.e. 10, -8 after the picking penalty).”

The optimal strategy for A is to pick Z, even though this lowers his expected score. As a matter of fact, according to his predictions:

• if A picks Z: the final scores will be either A 1 > B 0 (probability 90%) or A 11 > B 0 (probability 10%). I.e. A wins in 100% of the cases.
• if A doesn’t pick Z: the final scores will be either A 1 > B -8 (probability 90%) or A 1 < B 10 (probability 10%). I.e. A wins in just 90% of the cases.

Is this banal? Or wrong?

Annus mirabilis

Considering Lacazette and Kane’s breakthrough and Pogba’s progression towards eventually being the best player in the world, I wonder whether Daniele’s 2014-15 is the best improvement season for a scout ever.

(Of course there are some more notable mentions among his players, e.g. Kurzawa and Willems. Also, Saul has just scored and got an assist against Real Madrid [after being subbed in for poor Koke!].)

(And of course I’m just trying to jinx Daniele.)

Opta Forum

At the Opta Pro Analytics Forum, which took place in London on February the 5th, they talked about topics that are relevant to FS. Ian Lynam sums it up in the following tweet: “Player evaluation/scouting models clearly hot topic covered in 4 sessions. Huge, difficult area but some interesting ideas #OptaProForum.”.

The slides of at least one of these presentations are available online: “Framework for Forecasting Professional Soccer Player Career Paths” by Howard Hamilton. Notice how among the “expected interests” there’s “fantasy”!