How much does picking a freshly called-up player pay?

I have already shown that picking a freshly called-up player (or more precisely a player who will debut soon) pays, but I now wonder… In the past I have argued that what really matters for the final score of a scout is how many “very good players” he has picked, so we should focus on these players. Were they picked just after been called up (or even after having debuted)? Let’s check it.

Here are the data of the top 10 players by predicted score:

Player	Prd.	Picked	Debuted	Difference in days
Neymar	[195]	2009-01-05	2010-08-10	582
Muller	[160]	2009-09-16	2010-03-03	168
Giroud	[146]	2012-01-15	2011-11-11	-65
Griezmann	[138]	2010-12-23	2014-03-05	1168
Mbappe	[137]	2016-03-21	2017-03-25	369
Busquets	[136]	2008-11-23	2009-04-01	129
Di Maria	[135]	2008-10-24	2008-09-06	-48
Pique	[135]	2008-05-29	2009-02-11	258
Ozil	[132]	2008-01-31	2009-02-11	377
Lloris	[131]	2009-02-12	2008-11-19	-85

More generally, there are 194 players who are predicted to score 30 points or more (the criterion for a “very good player” in the post I linked above). 54 (28%) of them had their first cap before (date of pick + 30 days); i.e. 72% of them were not picked because they were about to debut! (Of course in some cases they had been called up, but stayed on the bench.) The average difference between date of debut and date of pick is 313 days (consider that, as, we have seen, the difference is negative when the player was picked when he had already debuted).

So… picking a player who has just called up is not a bad idea, but if you want to win a cycle you should bet on players who aren’t in the national team yet.

Bonus: average age at pick of the 194 “very good” players: 20.9 years. Average age of all the 1,030 players picked so far: 21.0. No difference here…